>> pennsylvania, home of the liberty bell, the birthplace of our nation, and donald trump's last stand? "inside story" starts right now. ♪ good morning. good to see you. i'm matt o'donnell. it is sunday, october 9, 2016. thanks for turning on "inside story." let's meet our insiders of the week. first up, communications executive nia meeks. >> good morning. >> good morning, nia. documentarian sam katz is with us. hi, sam. jim eisenhower, attorney. >> good morning, matt. >> good morning. and law professor jan ting. >> hey, matt. >> hey, jan. all right, let's get into it now. political webzine 538 says pennsylvania has a 12% chance of deciding the election, and the only other state that's higher than that, according to 538, is florida. and we know there's gonna be a lot of complications with the hurricane down there. let's show you a couple of polls that have come out. the first one is 6abc f&m, a franklin and marshall college poll. has hillary clinton with a

pretty decent lead among likely voters -- 47% to 38%. then you throw in the registered voters, it goes to 48% to 36%. so, still a healthy chunk there. and then we have the monmouth poll, which has clinton at 50% and donald trump at 40%. now, both clinton and running mate tim kaine have been in pennsylvania. we've seen them this past week. trump and pence are gonna be visiting different areas of the state, mostly outside, out in central and western. nia, do you get the sense right now that perhaps the trump campaign is starting to wonder if it can flip pennsylvania for the first time for republicans since 1988? >> sure, because right now you don't see high energy in the cities. they're starting to have a little bit of bubble, which is why you're starting -- not just starting. you've been seeing these high-powered circuits going to those essential places. like, michelle obama's been dispatched. the vice president's been dispatched, et cetera. so, they really need to have that energy for turnout, because it's going to be a turnout election. if the trump/pence group can get those folks in midstate and out

west excited, they might come out in higher numbers if the folks in the cities are just like, "eh, well, yeah, i guess." but in talking to people, it's quiet, but they really feel like this is an important election, and they're gonna come out because they just do not want to support donald trump. >> maybe that's why we're seeing pence and trump going to areas where they know that they have support, some of those areas like southwestern pennsylvania, central pennsylvania. >> chester county. >> get their base out, right? >> matt, the new york times reported last week that private polls done by the campaigns are showing the gap getting even wider. and these are polls that are not public but done internally, both for the trump campaign and also other republican candidates. i think the thing that will tell us the answer to the question is in prior elections, if it had looked like the republican candidate had a shot in pennsylvania -- 2004, george w. bush, 2012, mitt romney -- they put a big push on starting right about now. >> sure. >> and you could see it.

and they didn't do it in philadelphia or in the suburban counties of philadelphia. they did it along the southern tier, up towards the erie area, the suburbs around pittsburgh. i'm not seeing signs of that from the trump campaign, but it could still happen. and i know in those prior races, it did happen right around this time of year. >> yeah, because everyone can agree that polls can change really fast. and, also, referring to what nia said, i think everyone can agree there's a high level of enthusiasm on the part of the republicans, which exceeds that of the democrats. and that's a concern, if you're a democrat, and it's a source of hope if you're a republican. things can change quickly. polls are sometimes wrong, as we've seen repeatedly. and everyone agrees pennsylvania's a key state. the trump people know they have to win pennsylvania, and the clinton people are outspending the trump people in pennsylvania by a significant factor. so, the clinton people are taking pennsylvania very seriously, and we await

developments. >> there is no trump campaign. there's trump. >> and that's kind of what's been working up to this point. >> well, it worked up until the convention. it hasn't worked since the convention. and unless donald trump in tonight's event, the town meeting, and in the next debate acts like a guy who could be president, he has no chance of attracting people who are still in the mix for making a decision. and that's not a lot of people in pennsylvania. the hillary clinton campaign has been a ferocious campaign. they've had -- the all-star team has been in pennsylvania. pence i thought did a very good job in the vice presidential debate. and kaine, who i didn't know much about, really did not come across as a very likable guy -- end of story. now it's back to donald and hillary. this is not a man who has prepared himself to be president. and i think it comes through.

and if it continues to be post-debate attacking miss universe or going after people who are totally tangential or irrelevant to the future of the country, this week, bill clinton created an opening on obamacare. he made an extraordinary statement that most people think was a gaffe. i actually thought it was a pretty smart political move because it gives cover to democrats all over the country who can now separate themselves perhaps from obamacare. >> i've seen again and again chester county being sort of this microcosm that people point to for trump's campaign, where he has to win over these suburban voters who they can vote democrat but mostly are republican. and maybe that's why we're seeing the gap, because he's starting to lose them. i think you kind of suggested that, jim. >> yeah, and i think our good friend val, who's on the show, is the chair of the republican party in chester county. and i know just from talking with him on the air with him, he's much more optimistic about

the toomey campaign than he seems to be. i don't want to speak for him, but it seems like he's much more optimistic about toomey. >> but as sam suggested, there are very few undecideds left in this race. people know who they're gonna vote for, even if they're not telling the pollsters or anyone else. >> it's a matter of motivation. >> exactly. >> it really is a matter of motivation, and in chester county i will say you see plenty of trump signs. riding around, you'll see plenty of trump bumper stickers -- not so much for hillary clinton. and that's not unusual because to be a democrat in chester county, you still -- it's one of those bubbling things. it's almost like maybe where delaware county was about 10 or 15 years ago. there's still opportunity for growth, but that enthusiasm is not really high for clinton there. it's higher for trump viscerally. however, again to the point, toomey is really what's helping to drive that overall. >> is pennsylvania to the republicans sort of like lucy is with the football to charlie brown, because, honestly, we've seen this in many election cycles since 1988, whether it was romney, whether it was mccain, whether it was

bush, making that late push for pennsylvania and then, all the sudden, saying, "we're pulling out 'cause it's just not gonna work again." it might be happening once again. >> if the race tightens up, and the only way that'll happen is if donald trump starts to perform like a guy preparing himself to be president -- something i am dubious about his capacity to do -- this will be like a football game. it'll be the last 2:00 of the game. who has the ball? who can control the clock? who can get across the goal line? i don't see it happening. i just think that the trump campaign has fallen apart, and we will only be catching up to that fact when the election is over. >> the tightening of the presidential race, even if the presidential candidate does not win the state, as george w. bush did tighten and did not win pennsylvania 2004, it greatly helped the rest of the republican ticket. arlen specter and tom corbett, who ran against me, had a very narrow victory, and our polling showed that that narrowing, with bush getting to within about 2 points of john kerry, very, very much helped other

republicans in pennsylvania. >> absolutely. >> you mentioned the toomey campaign. let's get to that, that pennsylvania senate race, leading the nation in outside campaign donations -- $57.5 million so far, according to the pittsburgh tribune. and even though the republican incumbent, pat toomey, has outraised his opponent, katie mcginty, the 6abc f&m poll still has the challenger in the lead. we'll show that to you now. mcginty with 41% and toomey with 35%. we have a monmouth poll -- there it is, 6abc f&m poll. now you see that has mcginty in the lead. the monmouth poll has them both tied at 46%. and then i'll throw in another poll. we're not gonna put it up, but the quinnipiac university poll has toomey at 50% and mcginty at 42%, which is an 8-point lead. all these polls are all over the place. jim, what does that tell you right now? >> well, i think the race is very volatile. the amount of advertising -- and kudos to channel 6 for running all these ads. >> they pay. we put them on.

we check them. >> certainly. and it's unprecedented in the country. i think i saw something last week that this may be the most expensive senate race with the most tv ads, and all our viewers know it 'cause they see them all the time. i think it's gonna come down turnout, and i think it's gonna come down to what i just said. if hillary can maintain a large lead in pennsylvania -- 5%, 6% presidential win in this state is big. you'd have to go back to bill clinton in '96 to get those kind of numbers. >> toomey is outperforming where he should be given the presidential impact. toomey is keeping this race close. he has been pounding katie mcginty. the top number i saw in those three polls was in the low 40s for katie mcginty. so, if you're pat toomey, what you want is if the presidential race gets to be 5% or 6%, you have a decent chance. if it gets to be 8% to 12%, it would be very tough to hold onto that. but he's holding his own, and this money that's pouring in i think is actually being used by toomey quite effectively.

>> clearly it's about coattails. i've got to say that, because if hillary clinton has a long-enough coattail, katie mcginty will be the next senator for pennsylvania. but if those coattails are short, she doesn't have a shot because pretty much toomey has decent-enough relationships. we do have a state where we do ticket splitting, but it really will have to be a lot of enthusiasm to say go the straight big "d" all the way down the ticket. and you're seeing that with the down-ballot races all throughout the state. >> coattails can work the other way around. i mean, toomey is doing a lot of ground work out in the state. he could have coattails that benefit donald trump. people are gonna go to the polls to vote for toomey -- >> the up ticket. >> yeah. who are they gonna vote for for president? "well, i guess there's this guy running." >> you're seeing that exact same thing in ohio with senator rob portman, who is helping trump, who has a 5-point lead in ohio. so, toomey is an interesting guy, and katie mcginty is in her first campaign, and we're gonna have a debate on channel 6 on october 24th. i think that will tell a lot.

>> let's put up the slate right now. i do have one more thing i want to mention. but jim gardner will be hosting a debate. it's right here in our 6abc studios -- the last debate of the campaign between toomey and mcginty. that takes place monday, october 24th, at 7:00 p.m. one final thing -- given the gobs of money in this senate race, what's that going to do to the person who wins the job? >> in what way do you mean? >> it kind of complicates things, but are we cynical enough that we just don't even worry about these things anymore? >> there are a lot of obligations coming. >> sure. >> absolutely, but i think we're pretty cynical at this point. [ laughter ] >> that's what i was afraid of. >> both of these candidates, i think, reflect the principles of their party and the points of view of their party, and the sources of capital that are driving these campaigns, both the candidates' campaigns and the pac campaigns, are reflecting those principles. >> but i think if katie mcginty were to win, i think that would be seen as a national thing. very few women -- no women ever from pennsylvania.

very, very difficult to beat an incumbent united states senator, unless you're rick santorum. it's really hard to win that. i think katie mcginty would be poised to be almost an elizabeth warren-type figure on the national stage if she could pull this victory off. >> whether it's a good thing or a bad thing, the national rifle association just downgraded toomey's rating from an "a" to a "c," which i don't know how he plays that within the base of his own party. >> probably saw it coming. >> well, he did have to see it coming. >> sure. >> but it may work for him. >> it may help him. >> it could help him in the suburbs. >> let's talk about the vice presidential debate earlier this week, and then we have the second presidential debate tonight. just throw out there -- what did you think about... some people think if pence was on the top of the ticket, they'd have a better chance. i've heard that. also, we've heard that governor chris christie may be one of the people that's going to be helping donald trump prepare for this one because they say christie is the only one that can be honest with trump and get away with it.

>> i thought that kaine was over-the-top aggressive. i thought he was rude. they're obviously both bright guys. i think kaine is an extremely bright guy, but he decided to take up the pit-bull role, which i didn't understand, because it was unnecessary. but i don't think it makes any difference. i think it's a one-day story. >> i thought pence did a great job for the pence for president in 2020. [ laughter ] it was excellent. i've never seen a vice presidential debate -- and i go way back to dan quayle and lloyd bentsen and all that -- where the candidate didn't stand up for his running mate, for the presidential candidate. that's kind of your job. >> nia, jan, how about trump and clinton tonight? >> that was the lowest-rated vice presidential poll since 2000, just as the presidential debate was the highest-rated presidential poll. so, i think it's not the most significant. nobody made any big gaffes. as sam says, kaine came out of character to be the pit bull,

but i think that reflects concern on the part of the clinton campaign that "we need to leave no stone unturned." >> trump/clinton tonight -- what do you think, nia? >> i think the tune-in will be pretty high. i don't think it will be as high as the first debate. the first debate was such a debacle, and people were really amazed. i think people will maybe continue to tune in as the debate goes on, if they look at their social media and hear, "oh, this is kind of interesting." but i think a lot of the hype is gonna start to wane. >> governor christie is the guy who's like, "listen. you have to..." what is he telling donald trump? >> he's the wrong guy to have to be prepping donald trump for a debate. you need a softer, not bullying. every word that comes out of christie's mouth makes him a bully. >> christie's told people in press conferences to shut up and insulted them. >> should mike pence prepare donald trump for tonight's debate? >> he's a practiced tv performer. >> he is. >> that's a good idea. >> i don't think donald trump needs any help telling people to shut up. >> exactly. >> i think he's got that one nailed. >> but he's not gonna listen to anyone who would adequately prepare him for this.

he's decided what he wants to do, and that's it. >> more "inside story" coming up after the break. >> "inside story" is presented by temple university. remarkable change isn't easy, but for those who take charge, it comes naturally. explore temple's impact. visit temple.edu/impact.

do you own a plane? do you own a bank? pat toomey owned both. but it's the fact that toomey owns a seat in the u.s. senate that should really concern us. while on the senate banking committee, pat toomey voted to rewrite rules to help bankers like him ...and he tried to eliminate protections put in place to stop wall street's risky practices. pat toomey: looking out for wall street and himself, not pennsylvania. senate majority pac is responsible for the content of this advertising. >> still talking about the last topics. we got more. we got more, folks. so, there's another race that's

making big waves locally, one for the pennsylvania attorney general. i'm going to host a forum with both candidates, who want to succeed kathleen kane as the next elected a.g. -- republican state senator john rafferty, who is a representative in our area, and democratic montgomery county commissioner josh shapiro. the forum will air on sunday at 11:30 a.m. on october 16th. among the many issues -- restoring trust in the office after the kane disaster, experience, the porngate e-mail scandal, the state's opioid epidemic. we could go on. sam, i'm the moderator, so tell me what you want me to ask. >> well, technically, the winner will be succeeding bruce beemer. [ laughter ] >> i did say "elected." >> but it's unusual to have two candidates from montgomery county. john rafferty is a state senator. josh shapiro is the county executive. and this is an election that normally would be decided in the southeastern part of the state, when you have two candidates

from the southeast, because basically the west won't even know these people. josh has got, i think, a very strong position because he did very well in the primary. this is a very strong ticket pull for him. and he's a great candidate. and rafferty i think is a pretty good guy, and he's very knowledgeable. he's been in the state senate for a term and a half or two terms. but what's going to attract people to this race, when you have this presidential race and the u.s. senate race? and i think it's gonna be very difficult for this race to be anything other than a pull to the top of the ticket. >> matt, the thing to watch for, having run for the office twice myself, kathleen kane's an aberration in a lot of ways, right? no democrat's ever been elected attorney general of pennsylvania other than her, and, as i said, aberration. so, josh has an uphill battle in that regard. and rafferty's trying to paint him as a kane disciple or friend or whatever, even though i don't think they're politically close or ever were. the real wild card -- you see it

in races across country, you've seen it in pennsylvania time and time again -- there are national republican groups that have lots of money that don't want an aggressive, progressive attorney general who's gonna go after banks, credit-card companies, waste haulers. they like rafferty. they don't like josh shapiro. they can dump a million bucks in in the final two weeks and change the whole course of the race, and that's the thing to watch for. >> but can they, with the all the noise, with all the tv ads? don't people just tune it out? >> it's gonna be about pulling the big ticket. it's gonna be the big "d," the big "r," and that's really what's gonna end up happening. truthfully, in the street, you don't hear anybody talking about the attorney general race, and it's like, "who? what?" >> but to the extent anyone's talking about any ideas, it's really josh. rafferty's not saying anything about doing anything in the office. >> rafferty has a coattail strategy, too. he's got a base in southeastern pennsylvania. it's not a majority base, but it's a base there. and he's just counting on pulling all those republican votes in from the rest of the state. >> but josh shapiro's working on the western side of the state,

as well. he's working it back scenes, front scenes, the whole scene. but, again, it's gonna be about turnout, and if they get the big "d" turnout, josh shapiro will probably win. >> and what will happen in philadelphia, given the conditions under which john dougherty is currently operating, which is a big factor in driving democratic turnout in philadelphia. the money and the manpower and the effort that goes into driving vote is very much an ibew -- they're a big piece of the puzzle, and will they still be? >> forum is on sunday, october 16th. i hope you watch. hats in the ring, everyone, for the next year's race for philadelphia district attorney. incumbent seth williams could have several challengers from his own party, and some of the names thrown out there -- rich negrin, renee hughes, ken trujillo, joe kahn, and here's the stunner. bob brady, the chair of the democratic party in the city of philadelphia, also a congressman, isn't backing anyone in the primary, which isn't until next year. but that doesn't normally happen. he backed chaka fattah in his

primary when he was -- >> that says a lot. i think that seth is really in trouble. politically, he's damaged goods. very hard for him to raise any money, given the scandal about the exorbitant amount of gifts he's taken and not really any enthusiasm for him amongst ward leaders or rank-and-file members of the party. so, i think it's a wide-open race, and i think all the candidates you mentioned, all of them have a prosecutorial background. they have a decent-enough record. they could really mount a credible campaign. i think one of them's gonna break out of the pack. joe kahn announced and had i think a pretty impressive announcement. it remains to be seen what rich negrin will do and if trujillo gets in the race. >> but you know what's really interesting was a lot of potential that came in when seth williams first ran, the first time and lost. ran a second time. had a lot of great will. and that has dissipated through the years. throughout every community that i've visited, i've heard nothing but disappointment and concern. and for all the wins that he may have had as far as the ideas of community policing and working together on a community level,

all that has gone down by the way of the different scandals and different things with marriage, what have you. the one saving grace for him may be that crowded field, because when you do have a lot of people there, you just have to have that 50 plus 1. and brady kind of got himself out of it. said, "oops. you know, sorry. just can't do this." >> just as the incumbent's weakness attracts democratic challengers, it's gonna attract republican challengers, too. this is a place where republicans have been competitive, the philadelphia d.a., and the republicans have won that in past. and so, you're gonna see strong republicans coming out and saying, "this guy's weak, and so we're gonna go after him." >> without all the distractions, do you think what he's done over these many years as d.a. would have been enough? >> no. i think if you talk to the people who worked in his office, it's a disaster. i think the guy is just not ready for prime time, and all of his problems are self-inflicted. but to jan's point, it would be great if philadelphia could be a 2-party city, where there was

competition. >> you tried. >> in the last election for d.a. and controller, the turnout was 11%. >> right. >> we got to go. we got to go. inside stories of the week coming up. i spent many years as a nuclear missile launch officer. if the president gave the order we had to launch the missiles, that would be it. i prayed that call would never come. [ radio chatter ] self control may be all that keeps these missiles from firing. [ sirens blearing ] i would bomb the [ beep] out of them. i want to be unpredictable. i love war. the thought of donald trump with nuclear weapons scares me to death. it should scare everyone. i'm hillary clinton and i approve this message. fios is not cable. we're wired differently. we guarantee to make switching easier. we'll show up on time. you're right on time. as promised, to install fios and set up the wi-fi that janet, jamie, jenny, jemma and jasmine need on their birthday.

thank you. for all their new devices. you can't break me. you want a piece of cake? switching to fios is easier than ever. now get 100 meg internet, plus tv and phone for just $69.99 per month online. cable can't offer these speeds at this price. only fios can. i think my strongest asset, maybe by far, is my temperament. i'd like to punch him in the face, i'll tell you. i would bomb the [bleep] out of 'em. i could stand in the middle of 5th avenue and shoot somebody and i wouldn't lose any voters, okay?

and you can tell them to go [bleep] themselves. get him out of here! get him out of here! get the hell out of here! priorities usa action is responsible for the content of this advertising. >> "inside story" is presented by temple university. remarkable change isn't easy, but for those who take charge, it comes naturally. explore temple's impact. visit temple.edu/impact. >> inside stories of the week -- we start with nia. >> the philadelphia association of black journalists will present their scholarship and awards banquet on october 22nd, honoring some of the best journalists in the region, as well as helping out the next generation of journalists. and we'll also be honoring one of our own, the late jerry mondesire, who was not only a founding member of the philadelphia association of black journalists but also a standout as an entrepreneur and an editor himself. >> thanks, nia. sam? >> i want to talk about what we're gonna see this afternoon with the eagles, but i also want to give kudos to jim schwartz,

the defensive coordinator, for standing up and calling out this linebacker who was caught in the airport with a gun that he didn't know he had in his knapsack. the things that schwartz said were really so counter to what we normally hear from coaches when we see players misbehave, and it was really nice to see kind of a role model. he used some language i won't use here, but he said, "when you act that way, you get that reputation." and we'll see whether that can be turned around. >> jim? >> matt, national political insiders are looking at montgomery, delaware, and bucks counties as the bellwether not just for pennsylvania but for how this election's gonna go across the country. those three counties -- if hillary clinton wins them big, you're gonna see a huge victory for hillary clinton in november. >> thanks, jim. >> on may 30, philadelphians are gonna get a hot, new travel destination when iceland air comes to philadelphia international airport with direct, nonstop flights to reykjavik, the capital of iceland, a great tourist destination, which has just been discovered by americans, probably out of their fear of

terrorism. it's a safe place to visit. it's full of natural sights -- volcanoes, hot springs, all kinds of great stuff. starting may 30th, we're all going to iceland. >> you think? we should do it. >> see the northern lights. >> "inside story" trip. >> i thought it was brilliant that the vikings named greenland "greenland" and iceland -- when it really is the opposite, isn't it? iceland's kind of warm with all those volcanoes and everything. and go, eagles. i think jim schwartz will be a coach next year. >> i hope so. i think he'll still be with the eagles. >> yeah. well, we'll see. that's "inside story" for this week. thanks to the panelists an >> coming up next on "action news," police search for clues in a brutal murder in delaware county. tonight is the vice presidential debate in saint louis. first responders save the day for victims of hurricane matthew in north carolina him those stories all next on

"action news." good afternoon it is sunday,

october 9. gray is off, i'm nydia han. hers some of the stories we're following on "action news." an early-morning house fire sends a firefighter to the hospital. >> hurricane matthew leaves the south with more widespread flooding and 2 million people without power. the eagles are in the motor